Month: October 2012

Stop being so Irrational!

A few months ago I read a most intriguing, intellectually challenging book that provides incredible insight on how people think.  Written by Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist who won the 2002 Nobel Prize for Economics, Thinking, Fast and Slow is an amazingly informative read if you’re remotely interested in how people think and make decisions, and why.  Based on Kahneman’s several decades of professional research, the book is also an incredibly difficult read that will make you painfully aware of just how lazy your System 2 can be.  So what does this all have to do with my insulting imperative in the title?  Did you catch the part about him being a psychologist who won the Nobel in Economics?  In part it’s because Kahneman’s research stood all of modern accepted economic theory on its ear.  See, economics is based on an assumption that humans are rational decision-makers.  Kahneman proves that assumption is glaringly false.  You are irrational (and so am I).  Worse than that–we like it that way.

So what, you say?  Well, for starters, your irrationality causes you to make some really poor decisions.  I won’t attempt to try to summarize all of a 498 page book on how people think, but one concept Kahneman and other students of decision-making have explored is extremely relevant today.  I’ve been struggling for quite some time to understand why large numbers of extremely intelligent people who I know (and many more that I don’t) can be so easily deceived by information, statistics, and sound bites that are sensational and powerfully emotive, that with minimal basic research will prove to be manipulatively misleading, if not totally inaccurate.  Kahneman, and those who have built upon his research, have given description and supportive research to a behavioral bias that I have observed on my own: our human tendency is to look for evidence to support what we already believe, and to avoid or discount any evidence which contradicts our beliefs.  Referred to in decision-making as the supporting evidence bias, variants also appear in scientific research (the systematic positive bias).

Two (potentially) big problems here:

1)  WYSIATI:  Kahneman identifies a phenomenon in thinking that he refers to as “What You See Is All There Is.”  When operating in our “fast-thinking” mode (System 1), we tend to make snap, intuitive decisions based on the information readily at hand, as if that’s all the information that exists.  Unfortunately, it’s those things that we don’t know about which can often cause us the most harm (as former SecDef Donald Rumsfeld so famously and accurately opined).

  Example:  A school teacher living in the Midwest earns $30,000 per year.  In an effort to improve her standard of living, she seeks teaching jobs in other parts of the country, and takes a job teaching in Bush Alaska paying $60,000 per year.  While expecting to double her income and her standard of living, she fails to take into account that the cost of basic necessities in Bush Alaska can be double to quadruple the cost of the same items in the Midwest.  By failing to consider the unknowns, and failing to seek evidence to disprove her assumptions, she inadvertently lowered her standard of living.

2)  Failing to seek contrary information can lead to inaccurate results:  A more clinical example here.

“Students were given the sequence of numbers 2, 4, 6 and told to determine the rule that generated the numbers. To check hypotheses, they could choose a possible next number and ask whether that number was consistent with the rule. Most students asked whether a next number “8” would be consistent with the rule. When told it was, they expressed confidence that the rule was, “The numbers increase by 2.” Actually, the rule was, “Any increasing sequence.” A better test would have been to check whether a next number incompatible with the hypothesis (e.g., “7”) was consistent with the unknown rule.”

In other words, you’re irrational.  But so am I, and Dr. Kahneman even acknowledges that he is too.  Now you’re aware that you have a problem-what are you going to do about it?  Here’s what I have done:

1)  Make it a habit when facing difficult, important, or costly decisions, to deliberately seek to disprove my preferred position.  This is incredibly difficult to do, but it’s powerful.  First, though, I have to acknowledge I have a bias, and make a concerted effort to set the bias aside while I attempt to prove the opposite.

2)  Deliberately seek experiences that are outside my comfort and familiarity (within reason here…).  Read things I disagree with.  Listen to both Fox News and MSNBC.  Better yet, seek primary sources to understand the full details of what was said or written, not just the selectively re-broadcast sound bites.  Cultivate friendships with people who believe differently than me.  Notice I said “friendships.”  They’re my friends.  I love and respect them.  I get to know them for who they are, and I appreciate them.  Then when I find myself in disagreement with them over an idea, I can more readily seek first to understand and appreciate their position, even if I still disagree.  Sometimes, I even find out that I’m less than fully informed!

3)  Assume that I don’t have all the information, and when I find that I am dumbfounded by the stupidity of others who can’t see the solution that is so right and obvious to me, recognize that I am almost assuredly operating under WYSIATI.

I’ll leave you with what is arguably my favorite quote from almost 500 pages of deep, intriguing thoughts:  “We know that people can maintain an unshakable faith in any proposition, however absurd, when they are sustained by a community of like-minded believers” (Kahneman, 217).

Supporting evidence bias is inherently irrational, and it’s hurting our culture today.  I want to think better.

Sharing a Post: Why I am a Christian Democrat

First, I am NOT a Christian Democrat (or a Christian Republican, for that matter), and thought quite a bit about changing the title, but thought it might get more people to look if I left it as is.  I read this blog, and found it an interesting, well thought counter-perspective to folks who believe that if you’re a “real” Christian, you must vote Republican.  Part of the theme of this blog is to seek first to understand, meaning we should make a real, concerted, objective effort to understand the positions of others, so I share this for your consideration.

Why I am a Christian Democrat.

Christianity and Presidential Politics

If you look back at the history of this blog, political issues seem to give me something to write about.  The thing is, the more I see of political discourse today, the less interested I am in participating (this from a guy with a Bachelors in Economics, a minor in Political Science, and a penchant to argue about anything).  I’ve resisted the urge so far to comment, pontificate, or otherwise engage in the acrid cesspool of 2012 American political discourse.  If you know me at all, you should admire my restraint, because I’ve seen the gamut of name-calling, stereotyping, and general human-bashing, and at times been the victim of it, from both sides of the political battlefield (it’s no longer a spectrum–it’s two fairly neatly polarized ideologies, with little tolerance for moderation, let alone differing opinion).

So why don’t I just keep my thoughts to myself, and not add to the cacophony?  Several reasons:

  • What’s getting represented as “Christian thought” in the debate doesn’t align with my understanding of Christ’s teachings.
  • I believe when we personalize the beliefs we’re discussing, applying them to real individuals that we actually know, we have the greatest chance of considering a differing viewpoint as something more than the misinformed understanding of a bumbling idiot, or the evil scheme of a mastermind intent on ruining the world.  I’m hoping that those who know me can look past our disagreements (and I’ll bet that not one of you will agree with me on every point) and consider the validity of the thought, and more importantly the person who had the thought, even if you choose not to adopt it.
  • I believe that the biggest threat to our nation today is not Iran, Al Qaeda, the budget deficit, abortion, health care reform, big business, illegal immigration, or the restriction or proliferation of guns.  It’s the de-humanizing and depersonalization of our fellow man.  By withdrawing from the debate, as much as I would prefer to do so, I am abdicating the fight against this threat.  And that’s not my way.

Christians in America today have lost our focus, and in the process of trying to “reclaim” America for God, we’ve given away our credibility in our culture.  We are mocked for our lack of compassion, lack of intellect, and lack of moral values.  Jesus healed the sick…we rail against government-funded health care for our poor (more commonly referred to as the welfare bums), yet offer no solutions of our own.  Our nation is hungry for hope and change, yet we offer them nothing more than stifling restrictions and government intervention.  Jesus didn’t give us a set of rules, he gave us a change of our very heart.  The rules method didn’t work out so well in overcoming man’s evil nature in Jesus’ day, why should we think that outlawing abortion, gay marriage, etc, will induce Godly values 2000 years later?  Our morality is totally inconsistent:  We mourn the death of millions of unborn children, yet advocate for the death penalty and dehumanize birthed humans who don’t ascribe to our religious or political beliefs.  Most frighteningly, we tell the world that Jesus is the only hope for mankind, yet wring our hands and proclaim our doom at the prospect of a nation ruled by a political candidate whom we don’t agree with.

Before all of my Christian acquaintances de-friend me, let me say that I’m first and foremost accusing myself.  I was the worst offender in almost all of these areas not all that long ago.  Those are stories for another day, but I can assure you that in my past, I could out-Conservative just about any one of you reading this, no matter how far right you are.  But God has taken me on a journey where he keeps confronting me with Jesus’s teachings contrasted with my attitudes and actions, and then gently asks me, “Which will it be?  You can’t serve both.  Is Jesus Lord of your life, or are you?  If Jesus is your savior, then Mitt Romney (or Barack Obama) can’t be.”

So where is God in presidential politics?  I honestly don’t know.  And it really doesn’t matter.  No president is going to win America for God.  Billy Graham couldn’t have won America for God if he was president.  And if the Christians in our country today keep thinking we’re going to transform this nation through politics, we are going to fail our God.  Because if you believe the Bible you read, God “deposes kings and raises up others“, not us.  Depending on your exegesis of that passage and  your particular theological bent, you can interpret it to mean that God picks every political leader, or that he chooses at times to intervene to empower or depose particular leaders.  Regardless of your interpretation, I don’t think political campaigns are where God wants us focused.

While it’s true that the concept of democratic election of leaders wasn’t relevant in Jesus’ time, I see nothing in his teaching that should lead us to focus on political solutions to our nation’s problems.  Jesus’ world was rife with many of the same cultural issues we face in America today.  He didn’t solve them by political action (much to his followers’ chagrin).  He transformed hearts with the love of God, manifest in the real, practical outworking of that love, impacting the lives of those around him.

Voting in the election of our next President is a foundational attribute of the nation that I dedicated most of my adult life to serving, and it’s my civic duty.  I don’t take it lightly, and haven’t missed an opportunity to cast my vote in any election since I voted for Uncle Ronnie’s re-election (man, I miss that guy!).  But my hope is not in politics, and my energies aren’t there either.  My spiritual commission is to make disciples (committed followers of Jesus), teaching them (meaning all I have influence with) to practice the things Jesus taught.  He didn’t teach political activism, he taught us to love God and love our fellow man (all of them, even the heathen Muslims).  And we demonstrate that love not by imposing legalized morals on them, but by walking out God’s love in front of them, and manifesting it to them, in such a compelling way that they can’t resist his love.

Me loving God and my neighbor won’t change the world, but it will change my neighbor.  And if each of us were to love our neighbor, and they did the same, pretty soon, God’s love would spread across this nation, and that would change the world.

Heavy heart

I started writing a post last night with the intent of resurrecting this blog with some deep thoughts about Christianity and our political climate.  The post is written, but it is going to have to wait, as I need to process something, and this is how I do it.

This morning a suspect was arrested in the Denver area for the abduction and brutal murder of 10-year-old Jessica Ridgeway.  A few weeks ago Jessica left her house to walk to school like she did every morning, but she never made it there.  A week-long search ensued, gripping the Denver area in fear and anxiety.  8 days after she disappeared, a body was found, mutilated and dismembered.  It took more than 24 hours to identify the body, and early reports were that the body was so horribly disfigured that the investigators could not estimate the age or determine the gender of the victim.  My rage was more than a little surprising, as I have no connection with the victim, and my only connection with Denver is that my son works there as a reporter.  Were it not for him and his coverage of the case, I would very likely not even be aware of Jessica or her death.  But I was angry, and even commented after she was found that there was a special place in Hell for people who perpetrated such evil.  How could anyone do such horrific things to a sweet, innocent little girl?

Police comments didn’t give much hope for a quick resolution to the case, citing a complete lack of leads that indicated a well-planned crime by someone who knew what he was doing.  I was therefore pretty excited to learn this morning that the police had made an arrest.  I was prepared to hate the suspect, convinced that we would soon see the mug shot of some sleazy, deviant older guy, the very sight of whom would make the skin crawl of even hardened observers.   I couldn’t watch the press conference at work, but was shocked to see my wife’s Facebook post.  The suspect, Austin Sigg, was just 17 years old.  How could a heart become so black in 17 short years so as to perpetrate such evil?

So far we know very little about Austin, but in the weeks to come many details will come forward.  In just the first few hours we’ve learned that he was made fun of because he had a high-pitched voice and was “different” according to one kind-hearted high-school classmate who found this reason enough to make fun of him.  He also supposedly enjoyed playing first-person shooter games, and took a forensics class at a local community college.  Our natural response is going to be to hate him, to demonize him to the point that we can somehow rationalize his actions, because he wasn’t human, like we are.

I am in no way making excuses for Austin’s heinous crimes, or advocating for leniency in the execution of justice, but I can’t hate him.  I grieve for him.  Naturally I grieve for Jessica and her family, but I also grieve for Austin and his.  While 17-year-old boys think they’re mature and the smartest individuals in the world, they’re still immature in their physiological and mental development.  I’m not saying Austin isn’t responsible for his actions, and shouldn’t be held accountable for his crime.  But I am saying that we share culpability.  I’m not blaming his parents, or his teachers, or the video game producers, or you for the fact that he conceived of and committed murder.  But our society has allowed evil to grow and fester, largely unchecked, to the point that the environment of Austin’s heart was ripe to conceive such an evil act, and then follow through on it.

I’m not calling for more laws, more anti-bullying classes, or more feel-good programs.  None of those things will stem the growing tide of evil in our world.  We failed, because we’ve largely stopped loving one another.  We are withdrawing into our enclaves of homogeneity, where we only associate with, approve of, and show compassion for those select few who can pass our entrance exams.  All others are locked outside, rejected as something lesser and unworthy of our consideration, let alone our love.  We espouse tolerance, while at the same time demonstrating a judgmental attitude towards all who don’t measure up to our exacting standards.

I don’t know anything about Austin’s life, but I can only imagine that there had to be some serious pain and lack of felt love to allow evil to grow in his heart to the point that he could commit such a revolting, horrific act against a little girl.  I’m not saying any one change in his life experiences could have prevented this crime.  But just seven years ago, Austin was a 10-year-old boy.  I have to wonder if he’d experienced more love and compassion from those around him, would his heart be different today?  Would evil not have had fertile soil to take root?  Would Jessica be at home right now, giving her mom hugs?

When will we have had enough, that we truly care enough about our neighbors that we will engage them with compassion, rather than ostracize them for their failure to measure up to our lofty expectations?

Evil is growing daily in our world.  But love conquers all.

I can’t hate Austin.  My heart aches for him.